Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Lorenzo Cappellari
Author-X-Name-First: Lorenzo 
Author-X-Name-Last: Cappellari
Author-Email: lorenzo.cappellari@unicatt.it
Author-Workplace-Name: DISCE, Università Cattolica
Author-Name: Richard Dorsett
Author-X-Name-First: Richard 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dorsett
Author-Email: r.dorsett@psi.org.uk
Author-Workplace-Name: Policy Studies Institute, London
Author-Name: Getinet Haile
Author-X-Name-First: Getinet 
Author-X-Name-Last: Haile
Author-Email: g.haile@psi.org.uk
Author-Workplace-Name: Policy Studies Institute, London
Title: State dependence, duration dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in the employment transitions of the over-50s 
Abstract: This paper examines employment transitions among men and women in the UK aged between 50 and the state pension age. 
We begin by examining the issue of duration dependence, using standard duration models.  
We then use a fourth order Markov model to estimate quarterly transitions while allowing for potential endogeneity of initial conditions. 
The results reject exogeneity of initial conditions and show the importance of both duration dependence and state dependence.  
This implies there is the potential for any individual to become trapped in non-employment and, ideally, 
policy should intervene as soon as an individual begins a period of non-employment.
Length: 39
Creation-Date: 2007-07
File-URL: http://www.unicatt.it/Istituti/EconomiaImpresaLavoro/Quaderni/ieil0049.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First version, 2007
Number: ieil0049
Classification-JEL: J14 J21 J64
Keywords: Labour market participation, Transitions, Over-50s.
Handle: RePEc:ctc:serie4:ieil0049