Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name:  Chiara Mussida
Author-X-Name-First: Chiara
Author-X-Name-Last: Mussida
Author-Email:  chiara.mussida@unicatt.it
Author-Workplace-Name: Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali, DISES, Università Cattolica, Piacenza
Title:  Unemployment duration and competing risks: A regional investigation
Abstract:  This paper presents empirical findings by applying a duration analysis and competing
risks models (CRM) to Lombardy’s labour force survey for 2004 and 2005. CR and
duration models are becoming increasingly pervasive in applied research to explain the
factors determining both the time in a state (i.e. unemployment) and the exit route from
the state (i.e. leaving unemployment for a job or non-participation).Starting from a
description of the main features and findings on unemployment duration for European
countries we add empirical evidence for the Italian context.
For a sample of 823 individuals experiencing unemployment we obtain useful insights
on the baseline hazard by applying nonparametric estimation of the survivor function
and we estimate four different parametric models within which the Weibull one provides
the best fit to the duration data. We find evidence of negative duration dependence and
higher hazards of leaving unemployment for married, younger and better educated
males. Then, by considering four different competing causes, we estimate CR models
to investigate what the characteristics are which drive transitions out of unemployment.
Males again present higher employment probabilities, while a consistent proportion of
females leave the labour force after a joblessness experience, signalling the presence
of a discouragement effect. These findings renew the importance of the kind of
analysis conducted, mainly from a policy perspective.
Length:  57 pages
Creation-Date:  2007-09
Publication-Status: under review
File-URL: http://www.unicatt.it/dipartimenti/DISES/allegati/dises0749.pdf 
File-Format: pdf
File-Function: First version
Number: dises0749
Classification-JEL: D21, O30
Keywords: Unemployment duration, Competing Risks
Handle: RePEc:ctc:serie2:dises0749