Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0

Author-Name: Massimo Bordignon
Author-X-Name-First: Massimo
Author-X-Name-Last: Bordignon
Author-Email: massimo.bordignon@unicatt.it
Author-Workplace-Name: Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Author-Workplace-Name: Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

Author-Name: Matteo Gamalerio
Author-X-Name-First: Matteo
Author-X-Name-Last: Gamalerio
Author-Name: Edoardo Slerca
Author-X-Name-First: Edoardo
Author-X-Name-Last: Slerca
Author-Name: Gilberto Turati
Author-X-Name-First: Gilberto
Author-X-Name-Last: Turati

Title: Stop invasion! The electoral tipping point in anti-immigrant voting.


Abstract: Why do anti-immigrant political parties have more success in areas that host fewer immigrants? Using regression discontinuity design, structural breaks search methods and data from a sample of Italian municipalities, we show that the relationship between the vote shares of anti-immigrant parties and the share of immigrants follows a U-shaped curve, which exhibits a tipping-like behavior around a share of immigrants equal to 3.35 %. We estimate that the vote share of the main Italian anti-immigrant party (Lega Nord) is approximately 6 % points higher for municipalities below the threshold. Using data on local labor market characteristics and on the incomes of natives and immigrants, we provide evidence which points at the competition in the local labor market between natives and immigrants as the more plausible explanation for the electoral success of anti-immigrant parties in areas with low shares of immigrants. Alternative stories find less support in the data. 
Length: 47
Creation-Date: 2020-03
File-URL: http://dipartimenti.unicatt.it/economia-finanza-def086.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First version, 2020
Number: def086
Classification-JEL: D72, J61, R23. 
Keywords: Migration, extreme-right parties, anti-immigrant parties, populism, tipping point, regression discontinuity design.
Handle: RePEc:ctc:serie1:def086